Good morning & happy Monday!
“Headlines, in a way, are what mislead us, because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not.”
– Bill Gates
So, last week I shared with you some of my thoughts on the media, the financial media in particular. In case you missed it, here’s a summary: I’m not a big fan 😉
Today I brought the receipts. 😊
Just before we start let’s take a look at where we are today: S&P 500 value closed at 5,554.13 on Wednesday. Just remember that when reading these headlines.
- December 19, 2023, Fox Business – “US economist predicts 2024 will bring ‘biggest crash of our lifetime.’” Subtitle: “Harry Denk warns an ‘everything bubble’ will burst in the new year – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,698.35 – S&P 500 up over 19% from this statement
- December 4, 2023, Fox Business – “JP Morgan predicts a grim outlook for the stock market next year.” Subtitle: “JP Morgan warns S&P 500 could plummet 8% over course of 2024” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,567.18 – year not over yet, but this prediction looking not so solid.
- October 12, 2023, CNBC – “Leon Cooperman says he expects very little from the stock market right now.” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,327.78, over 29% higher than when this comment was made
- October 10, 2023, CNBC – “Paul Tudor Jones says a recession is likely and will send stocks down 12%.” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,376.95 – this never happened, the lowest the S&P 500 got from this point was on 10/26 with a value of 4,117.37, less than a 6% drop
- October 3, 2023, CNBC – “Ray Dalio says the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5%” – Treasury yield date published = 4.80%, never hit 5% – these types of predictions always crack me up, that 5% prediction was only 0.20% higher than when he made it … and it still didn’t happen!
- May 18, 2023, CNBC – “Get ready for a sharp rally if debt ceiling is solved, JP Morgan tells clients.” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,191.98, the debt ceiling was resolved on Saturday, June 3, 2023, market value close Monday, June 5th was 4,273.79, a whopping 1.95% higher (pardon my sarcasm)
- April 12, 2023, CNBC – “Wharton’s Jeremy Siegle says it may be a rough 3 to 6 months for stocks.” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,146.22 … 3 months later value = 4,510.04 (8.77% higher) … 6 months later value = 4,327.78 (4.38% higher) … if this is what you call “rough” sign me up 😉
- September 19, 2022, CNBC, 2 unbelievably wrong headlines on the same screen shot (these people outdo themselves 😉) – “Fed rising rates ‘will end in tears’ for stock investors, Mineard says” and “The S&P 500 could retest its bear market low, according to chart analysis.” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 3,855.93. My friends, the S&P 500 is up 45% from this point – how wrong can you be???
- September 10, 2022, Fox News – “BofA strategist: Energy market ‘great inflation play,’ stay away from consumer stocks.” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 4,067.36, oil was trading at $85.11 a barrel. Today S&P 500 at 5,597.12 and oil trading at $73.82 a barrel – this “strategist” was wrong two times in one prediction … that takes skill 😉
- July 25, 2022, CNBC – “Sell whenever S&P 500 comeback reaches 4,000, BTIG says” – S&P 500 value date this was published: 3,921.05, hit 4,000 the next day and today sits at 5,597.12
Believe it or not, this is just a small sample of the headlines I have captured over the last few years. Even when I saw them, I laughed and thought to myself “how ridiculous!” That’s why I took the screenshot.
See what I mean when I say the financial media hurts people? Your financial lives would be dramatically worse if you listened to any of the advice listed above. And the thing about it, what are these same people doing now? They are making new predictions … which is in and of itself ridiculous (where’s the accountability?) … but what would be even more ridiculous would be listening to these people.
Turn them off, tune them out, ignore what they say … they are not your friends … they are salespeople using fear to generate revenue. They couldn’t care less if the advice is right, they just need you to consume it so they can get paid. It’s frankly disgusting if you ask me. Did I mention that I HATE the financial media?!
I know you’ll be shocked to learn that I actually have more to say about this. 😉 There is actually a very good reason why we as human beings are drawn to such media stories … I’ll plan on diving into that more next week … I find the ‘why’ fascinating. Stay tuned. 😊
Thanks for being such an amazing client base. It truly is my high honor and privilege to serve you. Please never hesitate to reach out if there are any ways we can serve you better.
Make it a great week ahead.