Author: Jonathan Hunt

Good morning & happy Monday!

“Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit, wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.”

– Miles Kington, British journalist / humorist, 1941-2008

Our world is full of knowledge, there are smarty pants all over the place 😉, but I fear there is far less wisdom. 

In school we are taught knowledge:  2 + 2 = 4, World War 2 ended in 1945, water boils at 212 degrees.  On and on we were taught knowledge.

Then we get out into the “real world” and that knowledge takes on a whole different perspective.

I worked at Dairy Queen in high school (a great job!) and I remember one time when I was around 16 years old some older co-workers (probably 18 or so) were talking about how a former employee had started down a bad drug path which included marijuana use. 

Now, I grew up in a very conservative home and my understanding of any drug-related knowledge was exceptionally limited … like pretty much zero.  Of course, that didn’t stop me from trying to contribute to the conversation.  I said something along the lines of, “Oh, wow, that’s really too bad, hopefully she stays away from pot.” 

Leading up to that statement I had no idea that marijuana and pot where the same thing.  Well, I got a real-world education really quick! 😉  They brutally picked on me for the remainder of the night and for many future shifts with those same co-workers.  I had no idea there were so many names for marijuana … but I found out. 😉 

Knowledge told me that excessive pot use could be harmful … but wisdom (which I clearly lacked) would have told me to just to shut my mouth in that conversation.

I can give you countless other examples of when I have stuck my foot in my mouth, but we don’t have that much time. 😊  

So, why do I tell this story, besides to embarrass myself?

Well, I think this really goes to the heart of knowledge vs. wisdom.

I know, as I imagine you do too, some very smart people who lack common sense.  I also know some really successful people who would not particularly score exceedingly high on an IQ test.

I would far prefer to have wisdom over knowledge.  Knowledge leads to grades; wisdom leads to life. 

In investing, this is a fascinating topic.

A client and I might have a good, in-depth, academic conversation around the question: How would you feel if your portfolio goes down 25%? 

In our minds we may believe that we can handle a 25% drop without major stress.

That’s before there’s a 25% drop.

When a drop of that magnitude happens, which has happened 7 times since 1980, it’s potentially a very different story.

Talking about it from a knowledge standpoint we might say, “I wouldn’t like a 25% drop, but I wouldn’t panic over it.”  Logically we believe that.

Then it happens and it’s very likely the story changes.

A $1,000,000 portfolio turning into a $750,000 portfolio will never feel good.  It will always be stressful. 

History teaches us that those drops are not permanent and then we have the great benefit of hindsight.

It’s times like those, and the hindsight view we gain, that knowledge turns into wisdom.  Hypothetical turns into actual.  Understanding turns into experiences.

This summer I had a chance to visit Hawaii and one of the things we had the opportunity to do was visit Pearl Harbor.  For me that is a historical event that I understand, but I never lived it.  I would view that experience completely differently if I had lived through it.  It was an emotional experience, but far less so for me than it would have been for someone who was alive during that time. 

I took my kids to Ground Zero in New York City a few years ago … for them 9/11 is a historical event much like Pearl Harbor was for me.  They have knowledge of the event, but I experienced that event.  For me that experience was very emotional and very real, for them it was just another historical event. 

It’s a world of difference apart.

So, in summary, personal experiences are far more powerful than academic knowledge.  There’s knowing something and then there’s living something.  Living an experience is miles apart from knowing about an experience.

Everyone has knowledge of love, but if you fall in love that experience is transformative. 

I’ve been in this financial planning world for 28 years. I started at age 18.  I was investment licensed at age 21 just in time for the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, that caused a recession and a major stock market pullback.  I lived through and advised clients through the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008.  The year 2020 brought about the quickest stock market drop (and a very short recession) of any of our lifetimes … we all experienced that!  2022, 2018, 2015 also brought negative returns, but without an official recession. 

When these events occur, and it’s a ‘when’ not an ‘if’, they provide us opportunities to grow from knowledge to wisdom, from understanding to experience, from belief to conviction.  And that makes us better and wiser investors!

As EO Wilson (American biologist 1929-2021) stated, “We are drowning in information but starved for wisdom.”

So, congratulations are in order … you are growing in wisdom as an investor.  😊

What a joy it is to learn and grow with you!  Please reach out with any ways my team and I can support you.

Make it a great week ahead. 

Good morning & happy Monday!

“It’s easy to lie with statistics.  It’s hard to tell the truth without statistics.”

– Andrejs Dunkels, mathematician, 1939-1998

Last week I commented on how government bond rates are the starting point of an investment conversation.

Quick review: If an investor can get a guaranteed 5% through U.S. government bonds, any other investment opportunities must be above that rate or the investor will just go with the guaranteed rate available through the U.S. bonds.

From there an investor is going to look at how much they believe they can make on an investment and how much risk they will have to take on to get that return.

In the investment world, we quantify the risk through a statistical evaluation called standard deviation.

Standard deviation is how we determine the amount of risk we are taking for an investment.  As a general rule, the higher the standard deviation (higher risk) the higher the expected rate of return.  A lower standard deviation investment would have less risk, and thus we would expect a lower rate or return from that investment. 

Since standard deviation measures risk in the form of probabilities, we have to quantify the likelihood of something happening from a historical perspective. 

Generally speaking, in investment terms 1 standard deviation = 68% of the time (for simplicity let’s call is 2/3rds), 2 standard deviation = 95% of the time, and 3 standard deviation = 99%+ of the time. 

We having fun yet? 😉

Please allow me to explain how this may look in the real world.

Let’s say I present you with 3 different investment opportunities (please understand that this is all completely hypothetical and for educational purposes only).

• Option #1: 6% rate of return with a standard deviation of 0
• Option #2: 8% expected rate of return with a standard deviation of 10
• Option #3: 10% expected rate of return with a standard deviation of 20

Option #1 means you get 6% every year.  Year #1 is the same as year #2, #3, #4, & #5.  That’s where the 0 standard deviation comes in … the 6% never changes … it’s never higher, it’s never lower.  An example of this would be a fixed annuity where you get a fixed rate for a fixed period of time (the current rate on those is around 6% for a 5-year period of time).

In the option #2 example, you as investor are expecting the average rate of return of that investment to be 8% … but it’s not always going to be 8%.  Some years it will be higher and some years it will be lower.  Standard deviation measures how far historically that investment has deviated from 8%.  In this example, the standard deviation is 10, so that means that roughly 2 out of 3 years the return of that investment will be plus or minus 10% of 8% … said another way 2 out of 3 years the return of this investment is expected to be between -2% and +18% (+ / – 10% of 8%).  If we go 2 standard deviations, which is where I like to have my conversations on this topic, the return of this investment is expected to be plus or minus 20% from the expected rate of return of 8%.  So, 19 years out of 20 (95% of the time) we can reasonably expect the return of this investment to be between negative 12% and positive 28% (20% on either end of 8%).

I know we’re getting in the weeds a bit here, but I hope I am communicating this well.

In option #3 investors are expecting a 10% average rate of return but are willing to take on more risk (volatility, uncertainty, you pick the term😉) to achieve that return.  They are willing to go 20% more or less than the 10% expected return … so in this example that’s a -10% return to a +30% rate of return 2 out of every 3 years (one standard deviation).  If we go to 2 standard deviations in order to get a wider range of possibilities (19 years out of 20) then the returns are between negative 30% and positive 50%.   With almost complete statistical probability (3 standard deviation = 99%+) the return would be – 50% to + 70%.   Any returns outside of that range we would consider a statistical anomaly (a fancy term for really unlikely). So, we as an investor could reasonably expect our return in any given year to be -50% to +70% on this investment, with the exception of an average return of 10%. 

For those of us who are visual learners, here’s a few charts:

Chart shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of historical volatility and return dispersion over time; it does not reflect the actual performance or predict the future trajectory of any specific investment.

So, which of these hypothetical investments is best?

There is no right answer to that question.  It all depends on each investor’s willingness to take on risk. 

If this is a 20-year investment and option #1 makes 6%, option #2 make 8% and option #3 makes 10% the ending balance on $100,000 would be …

• $320,713.55 in option #1 (6% growth rate for 20 years)
• $466,095.71 in option #2 (8% growth rate for 20 years)
• $672,749.99 in option #3 (10% growth rate for 20 years)

Of course, all of us would prefer $672,749 over $466,095 or $320,713, but not all of us are willing to accept the level of volatility / risk (standard deviation) that is required to achieve such returns.  There is nothing wrong with that.

We seek to maximize our clients’ rates of returns within their defined level of risk … known as risk-adjusted rate of return (I think my industry makes up terms to make us appear even nerdier … I clearly don’t need any help looking nerdy. 😉). 

Every single investment in your portfolio we have evaluated the historical returns in relation to its standard deviation (amongst a bunch of other factors), so rest assured that we are fully deploying our nerd-skills in your portfolio.  😉.

Thank you so much for your trust, loyalty, and friendship!  We can’t be more excited and honored to serve you.  Feel free to reach out with any questions (or for a deeper dive into standard deviation 😉).

Make it a great week ahead.

Good morning & happy Monday!

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”

– Benjamin Franklin

Today, let’s go back to the beginning.

What’s the starting point of an investment decision?

How do we as investors determine if an investment is a good one or a bad one?

Well, it all starts off with what we as investors can get on a fixed or guaranteed basis.

We must be careful when we use the word guaranteed in an investment conversation, so please allow me to explain just a little further.

Let’s say that you have an investment opportunity that you believe will provide a return of 4% annualized rate of return … but it is a volatile investment.  Let’s also assume that you can get 5% in your FDIC insured bank account. 

Which would you choose – the 4% volatile investment or the 5% bank guaranteed return?

This one goes in the no-brainer category … I think we would all choose to leave the money in the bank in this example.  Why would we maybe get 4% if we could get a guaranteed 5%? 

So, that’s our starting point … what can investors get on a no-risk basis.

From there we all make decisions based on how risky an investment is and how much more we think we can make from that investment given the higher level of risk we would be taking.

Generally speaking, the United States Treasury yields are considered to be the global gold standard for fixed, guaranteed returns.

The United States government borrows money in the form of bonds.  Since our federal government spends more than they bring in (a whole other topic I have strong opinions about) they borrow the difference.

So, if you purchase a U.S. savings bond, or treasury note, bill, or bond you are lending your money to the United States federal government … and you are acting on the fair assumption that that is the safest of the safe.  As guaranteed as guaranteed gets.  It is after all backed by “the full faith and credit of the United States.”  😊

2 quick side notes:

• Treasury bills are short term (less than 1 year), treasury notes are medium term (1-10 years), treasury bonds are long term (10-30 years)
• As frustrated as we can all get with our government, the deficit spending of the majority of the rest of the developed world is far worse.  Maybe I’ll address that in some future Monday morning memo … I’m sure that will be an exciting one! 😉

Today the 10-year U.S. treasury yield is around 4.95%.  That’s the starting point right now.

So, if an investor is looking at an investment the first consideration is going to be: how will this investment compare over the next 10 years to the U.S treasury return of almost 5%?  (This works for any other time frame comparison too.)

Even though I know we don’t consciously think about it in these terms, we consistently behave this way in many areas of our life.

If my drive to the office is consistently 20 minutes, taking a very safe, predictable route, would I take another route where my travel time would be between 18-35 minutes?  It’s not worth the risk to potentially shave off a max of 2 minutes of driving time.

If I’m considering a travel destination that will require 3 plane rides, a boat ride, and 2 bus rides it better be a heck of an amazing destination I’m going to in order to make it worth all that travel (and the risk of delays, cancelations, etc.).  My risk has to match my gains.  I’m not doing all of that just to go to a beach … I can drive an hour and half and be to a beach.

As investors it’s the same type of thought process.  What kind of return can I get without risk vs. what kind of return can I get with risk … and is that a worthwhile trade off?  This is known as risk premium … the additional return investors demand for taking on more risk. 

This leads me into another topic that I will address next week … the expected return on an investment and the range of returns for that investment … in the industry we call this standard deviation.  I know you’re excited, LOL 😊

It is my hope that this was helpful in establishing an investment baseline.  I plan on using the next handful of weeks to build upon this.  I want to give you an opportunity to grow and advance in your investment knowledge and understanding. 

Thank you for allowing me to be your financial planner, your investment guide, your advocate.  Please let me know any way I can support you further.

Make it a great week ahead.

Good morning & happy Monday!

“When things go badly, people become cautious.  Then their caution causes things to go well, and when things go well, they become incautious.  I think that’s the forever cycle.”

– Howard Marks

Last week for Labor Day I made a few comments around why we work, why we labor.

That got me thinking (danger! 😉) about WHY we as investors invest … and more specifically why we invest in stocks (equities).

As equity investors we understand that there is volatility involved.  It can feel like our portfolio is more like a pinball being bounced around a pinball machine, being operated by a teenager who drank 4 Mountain Dews. 

So, why the heck do we do it?  Why do we allow ourselves to be subject to such mental torture?

If you’ve been hanging around me for a while you will know I will undoubtably point to the fact that history teaches us that it’s been exceptionally profitable to be an equity investor. 

I also will remind us that as equity investors we are taking an ownership stake in companies.  We are business owners.  Almost by its very nature business ownership is volatile.  If you are a business owner, you know this as a fact.  If you are not a business owner, ask any business owner you know, and they will tell you owning a business is volatile.

But today I want to discuss a little more about the WHY.

Yes, we want to be profitable, and we understand that owning diversified holdings of businesses is an exceptionally effective way to do that.  But, why?

I will contend to you that one of the main reasons that stocks are so profitable is BECAUSE they are volatile. 

Let’s take a step back and think this through for a moment.

If given the choice between a high rate of return or a low rate of return, virtually everyone will choose a high rate of return.  Since stocks are where high rates of return are found, one would naturally think that people would be piling into stocks.

But then comes the second layer. 

If given the choice between volatility or stability I think we would choose stability hands down.  That’s not a difficult decision. 

And here is where the tension lies … and the WHY behind stocks’ incredible opportunity to be profitable.

We all want high returns, which stocks give us an opportunity to achieve, AND low volatility, something stocks most certainly do not provide. 

Well, my friends, you can’t have BOTH.  You can have one, but you can’t have both.

THIS IS GREAT NEWS!

If investing were easy, everyone would do it.  And if everyone did it, it would not be anywhere close to as profitable.

So, it’s actually the volatility that CAUSES the equity premium we as investors receive. 

Safe investors will sit in cash, bank CDs, and other non-volatile assets.  No problem, that’s the right place for some.  They will get their 1%, 2%, 3% returns and watch on the sidelines as us equity investors ride the rollercoaster.

Then there are those investors who get scared.  They are ok when their investments are “behaving themselves” with positive returns, but when storm clouds come, they get nervous.  There are a lot of these people. 

Some can handle a 10% loss, but if the loss hits 20%, they will want to bail.  Others have a higher tolerance before they ‘lose their cookies’ on the ride … 25%, 30%, 40%? 

When these people sell their ownership stake in amazing companies, they do so at deep discounts and steep losses.  History teaches us that they have significantly harmed themselves … but they actually help those of us who stay the course. 

During COVID some investors panicked when the losses became too great … when the volatility became more than they could bear.  When they hit the sell button, I was one of the investors buying great companies as a significant discount.

As the old adage goes: buy low, sell high.  Well, it’s volatility that provides such opportunities. 

So, I would actually go so far as to say don’t just tolerate volatility … embrace it.  It’s WHY we’ve been able to be so profitable. 😊

Thank you for the incredible privilege of serving you and helping you navigate these investment waters. 

Make it a great week ahead.

Good morning, happy Monday, and happy Labor Day!

“Find your why and you’ll find your way.”

– John Maxwell

As we celebrate Labor Day today, I would like to briefly (like Jonathan briefly 😉) talk about the WHY behind our labor.

Why do we labor?  Why do we toil?  Why do we sacrifice?

Is it just a paycheck or is there more to it?

I love my career as a financial planner.  I engage in impactful work, with an incredible team, for amazing clients.  It’s truly a dream come true.  Thank you for allowing me to serve you! 

But, when the alarm goes off before the sun rises, I’m not exactly motivated to rush into the office. 

But I do it.  And I know you do too (or if you are retired, you did).  So, why?

Obviously, a paycheck is a requirement, but I hope there’s more to it than just the income.

I hope there’s meaning, purpose, and a sense of accomplishment that comes with your work.

During the COVID lockdowns one of the many actions that was implemented was an “essential worker” requirement to be able to go into the office.

I was considered an essential worker during this period, but whose job is really not essential? 

From doctors and nurses to bus drivers and garbage collectors.  From white collar to blue collar.  From those who use their brain to those who use their muscles, it takes all of us for society to fully function.  I don’t know anyone who has a non-essential job.   

Your customers count on you.  Your co-workers count on you.  Society counts on you. 

What you do matters!!!  YOU matter!!!

This goes for my retired friends too.  Your contributions to your family, friends and community matters!  Don’t think that just because your career is over, that your calling is over.  Far from it … I know you have more to give, more to contribute, more impact to make! 

I shared last week how the Global Leadership Summit speaker Arthur C. Brooks shared a heartbreaking statistic: over 30% of women and over 20% of men answer “Yes” to the statement “My life feels meaningless.”  Those percentages have spiked dramatically (nearly doubled) over the last 10 years (he attributes much of that to social media and the non-stop comparing of ourselves to others).

I fear that there are some who are reading these words of mine right now who struggle with the feeling that life feels meaningless.  None of us are immune to those feelings creeping into our minds at times. 

Please hear me loud and clear: YOU MATTER!  YOU HAVE PURPOSE!  YOU HAVE A CALLING!

I understand that can be cloudy and unclear at times.  I understand it may not feel like it.  But that does not change the fact that God custom created you with a plan and purpose!

Keep seeking for what that is.  Make progress through the pain.   Take forward steps in the fog.

Your work matters!  Your contribution matters!  YOU matter!

May I respectfully encourage and challenge all of us to pursue purpose over a paycheck, time investments over time clocks, impact over income, and a calling over a career. 

As we seek and discover deeper purpose I believe we will tap into a deeper understanding of why we are on this planet … and there is great joy in that journey of discovery!

Happy Labor Day!  I hope you found some encouragement (and maybe a helpful challenge) in my words today.  I’ll get back to nerdville with facts and figures next week. 😊

You rock!  Thanks for allowing me to be a part of the story you are writing!  It’s an amazing story that’s unfolding!!!

Make it a great week ahead.

Good morning & happy Monday!

“Our mobile phones have become the greatest spy on the planet.”

– John McAfee

Last week I shared with you about Jim Collins and the insights he shared during the Global Leadership Summit I attender earlier this month. 

Today I would like to share some significant takeaways from another speaker at that same conference, Arthur C. Books. 

This dude is a Harvard professor and author who specializes in the neuroscience of what makes us happy.  A fascinating topic and his thoughts have changed the way I live my life in the near month since I heard his talk on August 6^th. 

We are all seeking happiness, but few of us truly understand what will truly make us happy.  What we tend to think will make us happy oftentimes falls short. 

What is true happiness?  Does such a thing even exist?  Can it be consistently attained? 

Doubling the income or doubling the net worth will not make us happy.  If it only were that simple.  There is actually very little correlation between income / wealth and happiness (much to the chagrin of the financial planner community 😉)

Dr. Brooks really caught my attention when he showed a graph that showed over 30% of women and 20% of men answer “Yes” to the statement, “My life feels meaningless.”

He goes on to point out that those “Yeses” have skyrocketed since smartphones became mainstream. 

His theory is that smart phones are feeding our left hemisphere brain which says, “Love things, use people, worship self.”  This is causing people to be anxious, depressed, and lose meaning in their lives.

Cell phones feed this monster living inside our head. 

Alternatively, the right hemisphere brain says, “Use things, love people, worship God.”  This is how we were wired to think, but cell phones have tricked our right hemisphere portion of our brain into believing the lies that the left hemisphere brain tells us.

I know I have been sucked into this cell phone addiction more than I would like to admit.

Fortunately, he gave some very practical, implemental advice that I have found exceptionally impactful, even for the short period of time I’ve implemented it.

#1 Cell phone free times … he strongly recommends no cell phone use the first hour of your day and the last hour of your day.  This is when the brain most needs to be dialed into what is real, not whatever our screens are telling us.

#2 Cell phone free zones … his recommendation here is no cell phones in the bedroom or at the dining room table.  This allows for more intentional engagement with our loved ones, something way more important than whatever our screens are showing us. 

His challenge was to try these and see if it does not change your life for the better.  It does not even take long … results start showing up on day #1. 

Well, I’ve been trying it … and indeed, I have seen remarkable improvement in my mental wellbeing.  Come to find out nothing blew up when I didn’t check my bank account, the news headlines, my social media feed, or the stock futures market as soon as I woke up! 😉  But my brain was free to think, pray, concentrate, and dream.  I’ve been unintentionally numbing my brain as soon as I wake up with my hands on a phone and my eyes on a screen!  Shame on me!!! I am exceptionally grateful for him calling me out on this and pointing out a better path forward.

When I wake up now my morning routine is stretch, jog, read my Bible, read a devotional book, journal, and shower.  All of this happens before I stare at my cell phone and my day goes so much better! 

My phone does not join me during my devotional time.  Previously when the phone would light up or make a noise, I would instantly check it.  I would literally put my conversation with God on hold to check my phone!  How ridiculous is that?!?!  I clearly can’t be trusted with a phone, so I intentionally put it in another room during devotional time. 

Same for dinner time, the phone’s got to go into another room. 

In full disclosure, I’m still in a bit of detox phase, so I am far from perfect from this, but the intentional steps I have taken because of this information have been transformative. 

May I respectfully suggest you try something similar?  Just for a day or two.  See if it doesn’t change your mental mindset. 

You have blessed me by investing with me … not just your money, but your relationship.  I hope today was an investment in you, your health, your joy, and your wellbeing. 

Please let me know any way I can support you as we grow together.

Make it a great week ahead. 

Good morning & happy Monday!

“Strength does not come from winning.  Your struggles develop your strengths.  When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.”

– Arnold Schwarzenegger

My friends, on August 6^th & 7^th, I had a chance to attend The Global Leadership Summit virtually.  Some of the most well-respected voices in leadership caused me to burn through 16 pages of notes in two days.  It was an exceptional conference! (I already signed up for next year’s summit.)

It was so valuable to me that I would love to share a bit of the learning with you this morning. 

My wife warned me recently, “Your Monday Morning Memos are getting a bit too long” … so I’ll try to keep my comments concise (but I do get excited about these topics).  😊

Jim Collins, the author of Good to Great (a great book!) and 8 other books, shared a concept he called NATILIE moments which stands for Not All Time In Life Is Equal.

This goes to the concept that there are a handful of times in our lives that are so important and impactful that they carry a special weight to them.

Those final moments by the bedside of a dying loved one.  A long overdue reconciliation conversation with a family member.  A response to a tense engagement at work where the stakes and emotions are high.  These are NATILIE moments. 

I think we can all point back to a time in our lives where we faced such critical moments.  Sometimes we handled them well, sometimes we probably wish we had a re-do. 

Jim’s challenge to the leadership community during NATILIE moments was to “Bring unequal intensity to that unequal moment … we must summon more to meet this moment.”

I know some of you are at that moment right now.  A decision is lingering, a conversation is overdue, a choice needs to be made.  I hope that these words are helpful and encouraging to you as you face your NATILIE moment. 

In Jim’s talk he also discussed a couple of ideas that I can’t shake from my mind.

He spoke about cliff moments and fog moments.

He defined a cliff moment as one that “… alters the trajectory of your life and forces choices about what is next.”

He passionately explained that sometimes these cliff moments are when we really determine who we are, what we really value, what our life is truly about.

Often our cliff moments were not from our choosing.  An earth-shattering phone call.  An unexpected job termination.  The terrifying words from a doctor’s mouth.

These cliff moments can challenge us to the core.  Who am I when a core component of who I am has been stripped away?

Mr. Collins goes on to say that cliff moments tend to lead to a state of fog.

When wandering in the fog we can’t see where we are going, we are lucky to even see where we are. 

I think we’ve all had at least some seasons of fog.

The bigger the cliff we face, the denser the fog.

His advice for those of us in the fog:

• Realize that after a cliff moment the fog is where you are supposed to be – it’s okay
• When in deep fog don’t try to figure everything out, just take the next best step (he called it simplex-stepping)
• Avoid big, irreversible decisions when you are in the fog
• Pre-clear fog whenever possible – are there things you can do that would make the decisions ahead a bit clearer?

I know some of you are facing a cliff, some are in the middle of the fog, and some are staring NATILIE moments right in the face.  These can be scary places to be.  Uncertainty abounds.  Clarity seems impossible.  It can be difficult to just get out of bed.

Please allow me to encourage you in these moments to dive deep into meaning and purpose.  Find the foundation of your life.  Lean into truth, tune out the noise that tries to distract you from being all that God called you to be.

Cliff events, fog seasons, and NATILIE moments are all tremendous opportunities for growth.  Growth in our strength and endurance.  Growth in our love and faith.  Growth in our purpose and calling. 

So, today, if I may be so bold to challenge all of us: choose growth even during the pain and difficulty.  There are some beautiful things that can grow out of pain … but we must choose growth to get to the beautiful. 

I am so honored and humbled to be a part of your growth journey.  Let’s keep growing together. 

Make it a great week ahead. 

P.S. – I have some other meaningful takeaways from the Summit that I feel compelled to share, but I’ll do so next week as I don’t want to get too long winded this morning. 😊 

Good morning & happy Monday!

“If we don’t change, we don’t grow.  If we don’t grow, we aren’t really living.”

– Gail Sheehy

My friends, I have some exciting news!

Starting January 1, 2027, I will be the lead pastor of my church, CenterPoint Community Church.

Before I go any further, I want to clearly state that I will be serving in that role on a bi-vocational basis … meaning that I will still be fully engaged in my activities here at Intentional Wealth.

I love my career, I love my clients, and I love the work we have done together … Lord willing, we will work together for many years and decades ahead.  I view my financial advising role as ministry.  I seek to honor, serve, and glorify Jesus in all that I do, that includes managing money and serving as your financial advisor. 

I am a pastor’s kid, so I got a front row seat to see what is involved in leading a church.  I am fully aware that leading a church is a big undertaking.  I do not take that lightly.  I am quite sure it will be challenging.  But I feel strongly that God has called me to serve in this capacity. 

For a long time, I resisted God’s call for ministry in my life.  For a while I tried to run (“I don’t want to talk about it, God.”), then I tried to negotiate (“How about I just write bigger checks?”), and eventually I came to the realization that God was calling me to more.  More service, more engagement, more impact. 

I am an impact guy.  I love to impact the people in my sphere of influence.  As I’ve been praying over the last number of years, I feel my impact should include a greater focus on eternal impact.

So, what does this mean for you, my amazing clients?  I hope and believe there will be very minimal impact on your experience with Intentional Wealth.  We have spent years building a firm that is far more than simply an advisor … we have built a team, and I couldn’t be prouder. 

Combined we have over 53 years of experience in the financial services industry. (Is this how middle-aged people talk? 😉) … the Intentional Wealth team of Jonathan, Christy & Carissa will continue to bring the full scope of that experience and expertise to work every day in service to you. 

I am also blessed to have a great leadership team at the church and look forward to building that team further in the years ahead.  This is not a solo effort at work or at church … I have surrounded myself with amazing people who do amazing things! 

God is on the move, and I believe He has called me to the front lines … I feel compelled to answer that call. 

I can’t be more excited about the opportunity to learn and to grow while working for an eternal impact.

Will it be easy?  No way.  Is the effort worth it?  Absolutely. 

I am beyond grateful for your support, and I commit to you to continue to bring the best I can in service to you, your family, and your financial goals.

Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or would like to discuss further.  I am an open book. 

I am honored to be a part of your journey … I believe the best is yet to come!!!

Make it a great week ahead.      

Good morning & happy Monday!

“Perhaps the biggest myth about markets comes from the name itself.  We tend to think of a market as a thing when in fact it is people engaging in economic transactions among themselves on whatever terms their competition and mutual accommodations lead to.”

– Thomas Sowell

I’m not a big social media guy.  I’m virtually never on Facebook, but I do scroll X (formerly Twitter) for a few minutes a day to see what’s going on in the world (from a variety of different voices) … and try to find a joke or two. 😊

I came across this meme last week on X …

I love a good analysis and this one is especially interesting to me as it covers basically my entire life (I was born in January of 1980).

December 31, 1979, the S&P 500 closed at 107.90.  December 31, 2025, it closed at 6,845.50.  (Now it’s hovering around 7,700).

If I throw that on a calculator that means the S&P 500 is 63.4 times more valuable (6,845.50 / 107.90 = 63.4) at the end of 2025 than it was at the beginning of 1980 … and is currently over 70 times more valuable!   If we were to turn those into percentages that would be 6,340% through 2025 and over 7,000% today. 

But, when you factor in dividends, the profit that companies pay their owners, those returns become even more dramatic …  19,089% from January 1980 through December 31, 2025.

So, it actually looks like my little meme underrepresented the stock market return. 😊

Check out this cool calculator I found:  S&P 500 Returns since 1980

Here you can plug in whatever starting year you want and whatever ending year you want, and it will tell you the cumulative return and the average annual return with and without dividends and including inflation.  It will also tell you what the value of a $100 investment would be worth at the end of the period.  (So, for example, $100 in 1980 is $19,189.40 by the end of 2025).

It’s a fun calculator to play with, check it out if you have time & interest. 

Please note: you cannot invest directly in the S&P 500, all these figures are for illustration purposes only. 

Now, I know real estate is regional and it’s all about location, location, location, and I don’t know how to validate or contradict that meme representation of 737% return since 1980 … it looks reasonably accurate, but you can’t believe everything you read online. 😊

So, I went to Zillow and typed in my home address and the report it generated said my home has increased in value 45% over the last 10 years.

I’ve been engaged in many conversations over the last handful of years about how expensive homes are and how difficult it can be for young people to afford their first home purchase.  These are absolutely legitimate concerns, and I feel for young people trying to become homeowners.  It truly is very challenging. 

Over the last 10 years (2016-2025) cumulative inflation has been 34.24% according to another calculator on that same site … U.S. Inflation Calculator: 1635→2026, Department of Labor data … you know how I love my calculators. 😊

So, that means that if my home has gone up in value by 45% over the last 10 years, that’s nearly 11% more than the rate of inflation during those 10 years (roughly 1% per year over the rate of inflation).  Using just my home as an illustration point, real estate has grown slightly more than the rate of inflation.  If my home was worth $250,000 10 years ago it would be worth $362,500 today. 

But, in that same time frame of 2016-2025 the S&P 500 has gone up by 326.77% including dividends, according to the calculator link shared earlier. 

If homes went up at that same level, a home valued at $250,000 10 years ago would be worth $1,066,925 today. 

So, many home prices are not as bad … or maybe stocks are just that good!!! 😊

Final thought, and I’ll land this plane. 😉

People generally feel that real estate is a safer investment.  It can feel safer, I get it … I can touch the walls of a house and kick the dirt in the back yard … I can do no such thing with an investment portfolio, so it feels more like an abstract concept. 

But, if we look at history, the far more profitable investments have been in equities (stocks), not in real estate. 

Is real estate a bad investment?  That’s not what I’m saying. 

But if we take the emotions out of the equation and just look at the facts … it’s hard to argue that there is a more profitable way to allocate resources than to equities. 

It is for this reason that I harp on the fact that stocks (equities) are simply ownership stakes in companies.  It’s not scary or abstract.  It’s very real … and history has taught us that it’s also very profitable!

Hope these words have provided some valuable context.  Thanks for allowing me to play with my calculators and share my findings. 😊

Please let me know any time you have questions or ways that we can support you.  It truly is an honor to be on your team.

Make it a great week ahead. 

Good morning & happy Monday!

“My system in life is to figure out what’s really stupid and then avoid it.  It doesn’t make me popular, but it prevents a lot of trouble.”

– Charlie Munger

My friends, I came across a headline on CNBC’s website on Wednesday that made me want to cringe: “It’s a big 48 hours for the bull market starting now.”

I didn’t click on the article, because that is click-bait at its finest, but undoubtably the article would have gone on to comment that the Federal Reserve meeting and the earnings announcements from some big-name companies were to occur on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Sure, those are important decisions and announcements, but give me a break … does anyone think that the next 48 hours are going to change our lifetime portfolio strategy?

When we invest, we are taking an ownership stake in some of the most innovative, productive, profitable companies in the history of mankind.  These are companies run by some of the smartest minds to ever walk this planet.  They are producing products and services we would have never dreamed of … you are reading this email from me on a computer or a phone … email, personal computers, or smartphones were not readily available in my childhood … and now we wonder how we ever lived without them. 

Remember when you would call to check movie times or to get a hotel reservation?  What about pay phones and step-by-step directions written out on a paper map?  How about ordering from a catalog that arrived in your mailbox?  Or using a typewriter!  Those days are way behind us, and as much as I nostalgically look at that period of time in my life, I’m grateful for the conveniences we have today.

The amazing companies that we have an opportunity to invest in have completely changed our world … and they are making a ton of money by doing so!

Guess who gets to profit from that?

Us!

When we own these companies through equity ownership (which is all that stock market investing is) then we profit when the companies we own profit.

It’s really quite simple.  In today’s world we can own stock in a company and own a piece of a business.  We profit when they profit, and we suffer when they suffer.  

Ask any business owner, at any time in history, in any industry and they will tell you that things don’t always go perfectly.  There are good days and bad days, good quarters and bad quarters, good years and bad years.

I’m a business owner; I can tell you with 100% certainty that is the case for me.

Here’s the thing … business is a human enterprise. 

Human beings run companies that employ human beings who offer products and services to other human beings.

The stock market is only volatile because of human beings.  😊

Now, I’m not sure if you will find any comfort in that statement, but it’s the truth.

On Friday we saw Amazon stock go up about 15% and we saw Apple stock go down about 7% (a huge lesson in diversification right there).

Is Amazon really 15% more valuable than it was on Thursday?  Or Apple 7% less valuable than Thursday?

This is human beings’ reaction to short term news from those companies.

We don’t make long-term investment decisions based on short-term human reactions. 

You know what’s happening at Amazon today, even as you read this?  The human beings that are employed there are working hard to provide more profitability to the owners of the company (those who own Amazon stock). 

You know what’s happening at Apple today, even as you read this?  The human beings that are employed there are working hard to provide more profitability to the owners of the company (those who own Apple stock). 

The valuation changes on Friday have nothing to do with the company’s mission to generate maximum profits for their owners … which is us! 

So, the garbage CNBC article was right that the 48 hours of Wednesday and Thursday were important if you are a short-term day trader who is simply trying to capitalize on market movements (a ridiculously dangerous game by the way).  That is not us!

We are diligent, patient, plan-driven investors who can tune out such noise in pursuit of our financial objectives.

So, unless your time frame for investing is 48 hours, I kindly suggest avoiding engaging in any such useless conversations. 

I know this is not new news from me.  I know I can sound somewhat repetitive in this messaging, but since you are bombarded by such short-term messages nonstop from the financial news media (affectionally referred to as financial pornography in my industry 😉) I feel it important to throw in a little logic, reality, and perspective from time to time.

At Intentional Wealth we’ll let humans do what humans do … emotionally value companies all over the board in the short run.  That cannot be controlled, manipulated, or predicted.  We’ll let those cute little humans do their thing. 😉

We focus on what we can control.  We cannot control how a stock or the stock market performs on a moment-by-moment basis (no one can) so instead we focus on building solid, diversified financial plans and portfolios in service of you, our precious clients.  These plans and portfolios are designed to meet your financial objectives no matter how many “The next 48 hours are critical” headlines you come across. 

Thank you for the trust you place in me and my team to guide you and serve you through this human experience of investing.  Please never hesitate to reach out with any ways we can support you further.

Make it a great week ahead.